Reds Spring Training Preview: Can Elly Do It All?

Gone are the days of  “Charlie Hustle,” with Pete Rose willing himself onto base at an unprecedented rate (he remains the MLB all-time hits leader at 4, 256). Now, nearly five decades later — and 35 years since their last World Series title — the Cincinnati Reds have a new star: Elly De La Cruz.

The 23-year-old Dominican shortstop has sent shock waves through the Rust Belt, bringing new life to the otherwise dormant Reds with a smile and his unique dance moves, while hitting 25 home runs and stealing 67 bases. He sprinted his way to becoming only the fifth player since 1900 to achieve the 20/60 feat last year, and there’s no reason to think he won’t do the same (or something even more impressive) this year.

However, in a situation reminiscent of Gisele Bündchen’s infamous ‘Tom Brady can’t throw and catch the ball’ quote , De La Cruz can’t play all nine positions. Subsequently, the Reds have struggled. Coming off a year where they went 77-85, good for their 12th straight season finishing below second place in the NL Central, it’s easy to feel like there’s a lot left to be desired in Cincinnati. However, two years ago, it was 62-100. The Reds are making progress, and that may continue this season due to a notable addition.

Second baseman Jonathan India, the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year and a previous staple of Cincinnati’s lineup, was traded with outfielder Joey Weimer to the Royals right-hander Brady Singer. The former-Florida Gator exchange solidifies the Reds’ rotation, with the five-year MLB veteran shifting into a starting spot behind All-Star Hunter Greene. However, it’s worth nothing, he’s been anything but consistent, fluctuating between a 5.52 ERA in 2023 and a 3.71 in 2024 (but, hey, that’s the right direction to be going).

With a group of talented prospects (five in the MLB Pipeline Top 100) and a couple of notable veteran additions, the Reds have attempted to surround De La Cruz with stronger contributors. However, their success will live and die on the back of the young shortstop’s production — possibly to a fault.

2024 record: 77-85 (Fourth, NL Central)

Last Postseason Appearance: 2020 (Lost Wild Card to Atlanta)

What Happened in 2024: Last season, the Reds were unimpressive yet again Cincinnati fired manager David Bell with five games to go in the 2024 season, a year that featured a variety of ups and downs, late-season struggles and an inability to finish many close games (15-28 in one-run contests).

Most notably, the Reds struggled on defense. They ranked near the bottom of the MLB in every defensive metric and had difficulties specifically in the infield (98 errors), which was an area the Reds had depth entering 2024. That depth disappeared instantaneously as Noelvi Marte was suspended last March for 80 games for violating the league’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment program. Additionally, 25-year-old first baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand broke his right hand and didn’t return after April 27, but he’ll be back healthy in 2025. While Cincinnati’s roster is relatively young, its prospects are beginning to perform. One of the brightest spots of its 2024 campaign came from Tyler Stephenson. The 28-year-old catcher recorded career highs in home runs (19), RBIs (66) and runs (69).

New Arrivals 

• OF Austin Hays (Philadelphia Phillies) 

• 2B Gavin Lux (Los Angeles Dodgers)

• RP Scott Barlow (Cleveland Guardians)

• RP Taylor Rogers (San Francisco Giants)

• SP Brady Singer (Kansas City Royals)

Key Departures

• RP Ian Gibaut (unsigned)

• OF Amed Rosario (Washington Nationals)

• 1B Ty France (Minnesota Twins)

• RP Fernando Cruz (New York Yankees)

• 2B Jonathan India (Kansas City Royals)

Projected Batting Order*

1. CF TJ Friedl
2. SS Elly De La Cruz
3. 2B Matt McLain
4. C Tyler Stephenson
5. RF Jake Fraley
6. 1B Spencer Steer
7. 3B Jeimer Candelario
8. DH Gavin Lux
9. LF Austin Hays

Projected Rotation*

1. Hunter Greene (RHP)
2. Brady Singer (RHP)
3. Andrew Abbott (LHP)
4. Nick Martinez (RHP)
5. Nick Lodolo (LHP)

Projected Bullpen*

Mid-Relief: Sam Moll (LHP), Tony Santillan (RHP), Brent Suter (LHP), Scott Barlow (RHP)

Long-Relief: Graham Ashcraft (RHP)

Set-Up: Taylor Rogers (LHP), Emilio Pagán (RHP)

Closer: Alexis Díaz (RHP)

Biggest Question: What’s the infield going to look like in 2025?

It’s unusual to cite your infield’s defensive performance as an area to focus on when you have an All-Star, MVP-caliber shortstop, but that’s exactly what the Reds focus should be aimed at this year. Cincinnati is coming off a season where it committed .59 errors per game (fifth worst in the MLB), with De La Cruz leading the way with 29 errors on the year. The Reds, and often De La Cruz specifically, struggled to execute in run-of-the-mill situations, concluding the season with a -13.1 error run rate (2024 league average was .16). Because of that, they placed 25th in defensive efficiency in MLB. As noted, Cincinnati had a string of injuries and suspensions that eliminated its depth in the infield, but that isn’t an excuse for its defensive performance in 2024.  All that’s to say, what’s the infield going to look like in 2025? A couple of new faces will play after notable departures like India.

Team MVP: Elly De La Cruz

Obviously, Graham Ashcraft (primarily because that’s a great name). But, seriously, this is very straightforward. Despite its shortcomings, Cincinnati will run out one of the brightest stars in baseball in De La Cruz. The third-year shortstop is a strong defender who spent more innings on the field than any other player on the Reds last season. He has some issues as a batter, hitting a less-than-ideal .259 with a whopping MLB-leading 218 strikeouts last season, but still managed to slug .471. He finished eighth in NL MVP voting last year after making his first All-Star appearance, and if he hopes to contend for the NL’s top honor, he’ll need to be more efficient at the plate. However, to be the Reds’ MVP, he’ll only need to keep pace with his 2024 performance.

Breakout Candidate to Watch: Matt McLain

This is also nearly as easy of a decision as De La Cruz… and it’s his double-play partner. After suffering a left shoulder injury during spring training last year, second baseman Matt McLain never joined the Reds in 2024. However, he’s expected to be back this year.

The 25-year-old debuted in 2023 with De La Cruz and arguably outperformed him down the stretch. He finished his rookie season with a .290 batting average while slugging .507 in just 89 games. A healthy McLain back on the diamond could provide a spark (and great assistance defensively) that the Reds need.

Key Stat: 15-28

This might not be in the spirit of the singular “key stat” prompt, but a few statistics will play the largest role in Cincinnati’s season. The most critical would be that it can’t go 15-28 in one-score games again. If the Reds were just above .500 in those games last season (22-21), they would’ve finished second in the NL Central and contended for a postseason berth. However, as the season wears on, winning tight contests becomes contingent upon strong defense, and that’s exactly where the Reds struggled last season. As previously noted, Cincinnati was just a flow of errors and cannibalized itself with its defense in the infield. Stephenson was also little  help behind the plate, as Cincinnati rated out to a -8 rSZ (strike zone runs saved). Their defense will be how the Reds shift their luck in tight contests. If nothing improves, it may be the same in August and September as last year.

2025 Will Be Successful If… the Reds contend for a playoff spot.

They haven’t returned to the postseason since a brief wild-card visit in the 60-game COVID-19 year. However, after two seasons of approximately .500 records, Cincinnati is primed to dash to the postseason again in 2025. The Reds enter spring training with their healthiest roster in three years, and with De La Cruz performing at an MVP level and its prospects taking shape, the talent needs to start showing on the field. The Reds should expect to be strongly in the running for the NL wild card this September.

2025 Prediction: Third in the NL Central, Playoffs

The Reds should be able to make a jump from their disappointing 2024 performance behind a stellar year from De La Cruz, accompanied by improvements by its young starters. If Cincinnati wins 85 or more games, it’ll get the playoff berth it’s aiming for.

FanGraphs’ Projection: 78-84
Baseball Prospectus: 75-87

*Projections were pulled from FanGraphs as of Feb. 23

Posted: February 23, 2025
Category: Cactus League, Cincinnati Reds
Tagged as: Austin Hays, Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds, Elly De La Cruz, Gavin Lux, Hunter Green, Hunter Greene, Jonathan India, Matt McLain, MLB, MLB Spring Training 2025, Pete Rose, Reds, Spring Training