Diamondbacks Spring Training Preview: Can They Topple the Dodgers?
March 3, 2025
Something sneaky has been happening out in the desert. Something that could give the Dodgers a real challenge in winning another National League West title — their 11th in the last 12 years.
Excitement for the 2025 season is brewing out in Arizona and rightfully so. Excitement that is hoping for its first NL West title since 2011 and another postseason run.
With the additions of starting pitcher Corbin Burnes and first baseman Josh Naylor, the Diamondbacks have arguably had one of the best offseasons in Major League Baseball.
But fans won’t forget the disappointment that came after the 2023 World Series appearance. In the beginning of the 2024 season, expectations were high, seats were packed and all eyes were on Caroll and the D-backs. Disappointment would be an understatement. A year after making a deep postseason run that found them fighting for the Commissioner’s Trophy, Arizona missed the playoffs entirely.
You can’t put all the blame on Caroll’s hitting slump; both the starting pitching staff and bullpen ranked among the worst in the league. With a healthy rotation and solid relief core, former Gator and closer A.J. Puk might not see much on the mound if the offense can break open games and lead the league in runs produced like it did last year (886).
2024 record: 89-73 (Third, NL West)
Last postseason appearance: 2023 (Lost World Series 4-1 to Texas Rangers)
What Happened in 2024: The Diamondbacks defied all odds in the 2023 season. Carroll, the then-National League Rookie of the Year, led the D-backs to the World Series for the second time in franchise history. Although falling short of winning any hardware, Arizona was buzzing with excitement to get back at it for the 2024 season.
However, by the time March rolled around, Carroll’s lackluster spring training –that wasn’t supposed to continue – translated into his regular season performance. He struggled at the plate for the first half of the season, the starting rotation remained injured and the D-backs seemed out of it. After the All-Star break, Carroll got things in check. He and the offense led the MLB in runs scored (886) but couldn’t pick up the slack of the pitching staff, which had one of the highest ERAs (4.62) in the league. The 2023 NLCS winners missed the postseason by a mere one game and finished 89-73.
New Arrivals
● RHP Corbin Burnes (Baltimore Orioles)
● 1B Josh Naylor (Cleveland Guardians)
● INF Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros)
Key Departures
● 1B Christian Walker (Houston Astros)
● DH Joc Pederson (Texas Rangers)
● INF Kevin Newman (Los Angeles Angels)
● RHP Slade Cecconi (Cleveland Guardians)
● 1B Josh Bell (Washington Nationals)
Projected Batting Order*
- RF Corbin Carroll
- 2B Ketel Marte
- 1B Josh Naylor
- LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
- CF Jake McCarthy
- 3B Eugenio Suárez
- DH Pavin Smith
- C Gabriel Moreno
- SS Geraldo Perdomo
Projected Rotation*
- Corbin Burnes (RHP)
- Zac Gallen (RHP)
- Merrill Kelly (RHP)
- Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP)
- Brandon Pfaadt (RHP)
Projected Bullpen*
Long-Relief: Jordan Montgomery (LHP)
Mid-Relief: Ryan Thompson (RHP), Joe Mantiply (LHP), Shelby Miller (RHP), Kendall Graven (RHP)
Set-Up: Kevin Ginkel (RHP)
Closer: Justin Martinez (RHP), A.J. Puk (LHP)
Biggest Question: Will Corbin Carroll come out swinging or experience another first-half slump?
It’s no doubt the 2023 NL ROY can rake, but he’s had issues with his swing (even if his homers hide some of those problems). Carroll posted almost identical numbers in home runs (25 to 22) and RBIs (76 to 74) from 2023 to 2024, but his batting average dipped from .285 to .231. Through the first 60 games, he hit .192, but started to get his groove back in early July. The outfielder turned things around and hit .259 with 17 home runs in his last 64 games. For Arizona’s sake, Carroll will hopefully pick up where he left off. If he doesn’t, the D-backs might find themselves in another no-playoff situation that they can’t get themselves out of.
Team MVP: Corbin Burnes
For $210 million over six years, Burnes better play at an MVP-caliber level. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since coming into his starting position in 2020. He has racked up 858 strikeouts since 2021, second only to Dylan Cease. With a 2.94 ERA in his four seasons as a starter, Burnes should dominate as the D-backs’ No. 1 guy. (He was just as good for the Orioles last year, helping them get to the playoffs)
Breakout Candidate: Jordan Lawlar
While he made his MLB debut in September 2023, he played in the Dominican Winter Leagues after only seeing the plate 85 times in the MiLB 2024 season due to injury. The No. 6 overall pick in the 2021 draft has posted a career .294 average with 38 home runs and 150 RBIs. He also stole 82 bases. If Lawlar continues his pace of play and stays healthy, he will be back at Chase Field sooner rather than later.
Key Stat: 27
The Diamondbacks ranked 27th in MLB in ERA (4.62) during the 2024 season. For a playoff-caliber team to be successful, pitching can’t be the third worst in any metric in the league. To be fair, every member of the starting pitching staff other than Brandon Pfaadt underwent stints on the injured list. Still, their rotation and bullpen need to be better if the D-backs want to get back to playing baseball late in October.
2025 will be successful if the D-backs make it back to the postseason in October
Although narrowly improving its total wins from 84 to 89, Arizona missed the playoffs just a season after an electric run to the World Series. If this team can make it back to at least the wild card, it could give the National League another run for its money.
2025 Prediction: Second in the NL West, Playoff Berth
The Diamondbacks have a solid lineup with Carroll leading the pack. If he can have another season like his Rookie of the Year campaign, Arizona can be a strong NL contender. With Burnes at full force and if the rest of the starting rotation stays healthy, the D-backs could up their wins to over 95 and finish second in the NL West behind the Dodgers to clinch a playoff spot.
*Projections were pulled from FanGraphs as of March 3
Posted: March 3, 2025
Category: Arizona Diamondbacks, Cactus League
Tagged as: Arizona, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Joc Pederson, Jordan Lawlar, Jordan Montgomery, Josh Bell, Josh Naylor, Kevin Newman, Los Angeles Dodgers, Lourdes Gurriel, MLB, MLB Spring Training 2025, Spring Training, Texas Rangers, Zac Gallen
