White Sox Spring Training Preview: Hope on the Horizon

Failure. Embarrassing. Unacceptable.

Jerry Reinsdorf, the owner of the Chicago White Sox, wrote those words in a letter to fans, which was published on MLB’s website the day the team finished its 2024 season.

His words, though apologetic, undersold the reality of the White Sox, who only three years prior competed in the American League Division Series. Not only did last year’s Chicago team lose, it broke records doing so. Now, when teams have a poor year, it’s not the 1962 Mets –  with a 40-120 record and one less loss than Chicago – who they’ll be compared to. It’s the 2024 White Sox. 

To add to fans’ dismay, Chicago took its best pitcher and traded him to the Red Sox. In return, they received two MLB.com Top 100 prospects: Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery, raising the total top-ranked total to six. There’s hope for a decent White Sox team on the horizon, but fans will be forced to wait until then. The only way out of the mess the White Sox created is one step at a time.

2024 record: 41-121 (Fifth, AL Central)
Last Postseason Appearance: 2021 (Lost ALDS 3-1 to Astros)

What Happened in 2024: It’s hard to pinpoint what leads to a team doing this badly because it isn’t just one thing. Injuries wrecked its rotation and lineup. Veterans like Andrew Benintendi, who won a World Series in Boston, couldn’t hit, slumping a career-worst .229 despite his 20 home runs. Chicago was outscored by 306 runs, more than 50 worse than any other team (the Rockies’ run differential was the second-worst in the big leagues at -247). The Sox only scored 507 runs all season. When the team looked at the looming trade deadline, the White Sox sold whomever they could: Michael Kopech, Miguel Vargas, Erick Fedde, Tommy Pham. With that, Chicago’s only ray of hope dimmed.

New Arrivals 

IF Josh Rojas (Seattle Mariners)

OF Mike Tauchman (Chicago Cubs)

SP Matín Pérez (San Diego Padres)

OF Austin Slater (Baltimore Orioles)

SP Bryse Wilson (Milwaukee Brewers)

Key Departures

SP Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox)

3B Yoán Moncada (Anaheim Angels)

SP Mike Clevinger (Free Agent)

OF/1B Gavin Sheets (San Diego Padres)

IF Nicky Lopez (Chicago Cubs)

Projected Batting Order*

1. RF Mike Tauchman

2. CF Luis Robert Jr.

3. LF Andrew Benintendi

4. 1B Andrew Vaughn

5. 3B Josh Rojas

6. 2B Lenyn Sosa

7. DH Miguel Vargas

8. SS Colson Montgomery

9. C Korey Lee

Projected Rotation*  

1. Martín Pérez (LHP)

2. Jonathan Cannon (RHP)

3. Davis Martin (RHP)

4. Sean Burke (RHP)

5. Bryse Wilson (RHP)

Projected Bullpen

Mid-Relief: Jordan Leasure (RHP), Cam Booser (LHP), Jared Shuster (LHP), Tyler Gilbert (LHP)

Long-Relief: Shane Smith (RHP)

Closer: Justin Anderson (RHP), Fraser Ellard (RHP), Gus Varland (RHP)

 Biggest Question: Can the rookies adjust?

This White Sox roster has an average age of 26.9, making it the fifth-youngest group in the majors. So far, the youngest player, shortstop Brooks Baldwin, has had mixed success.  Baldwin has only been in the league for one season, hitting .211 and slugging .316. How much of his struggles can be attributed to his right wrist injury in September is yet to be seen. 

However, the most alarming is his walk rate. In the minors, it hovered around 10%. When he arrived in Chicago, it dipped to 5.0%, the lowest in his pro career. Usually, if a player commands the strike zone, his walk rate hovers in the double digits. So, if Baldwin wants to adjust better to the majors this year, he needs to draw more walks. 

Similarly, Colson Montgomery will have to figure out how to adapt to big-league pitching after struggling slightly in Triple-A. However, more on him below. 

Team MVP: Luis Robert Jr.

The 27-year-old Cuban center fielder is the only bright spot in the White Sox’s starting lineup. Though he struggled last year, Robert has demonstrated an ability to succeed in the bigs. His slash line in 2021 was .338 /.378 / .567. Then, during the 2023 season, he hit 38 homers while slugging .542. If he’s able to increase his walk rate, lower his strikeout rate and continue to push runs across the plate, the White Sox are in a position to be … mediocre.

Breakout Candidate: Colson Montgomery

When, not if, the White Sox decide to call up Montgomery, the No. 39 prospect in the farm system according to MLB pipeline, the biggest question will be how he adjusts to the majors. It’s unknown yet where he’ll play in the infield and how that impacts fellow rookie Baldwin, but he’s too good for the White Sox to leave him in the farm system. 

He struggled in Triple-A, posting .214 BA and .710 OPS. But he hit better in the Arizona Fall League, generating a .313 BA. and a 1.167 OPS. If he can continue to improve his at-bats in the minors, Sox fans might see his name in the lineup late in the summer.

Key Stat: 0

Baseball is a simple game: score runs more than you give up. Though a basic statistic, ERA illustrates this point. In 2024, the MLB average was 4.07. Only two Chicago starters had a metric below this: Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde, who are both on different teams this year. Now, none of the returning pitchers who’ve pitched at least 25 innings on the team has an ERA below the league average. If the White Sox want to improve, they should start here.

2025 Will Be Successful If… the veterans show up.

No one believes that the White Sox are the Dodgers, nor should they. However, this team has two World Series-winning veterans in Benintendi and Martín Pérez. Benintendi’s problems lay mainly with a career-low batting average and below-average defense (which cost him a negative WAR last season). If he can put up better numbers, the White Sox will be in a better position to win. Similarly, Pérez ended his year better than he started it, leaving the Padres with a 3.46 ERA compared to a 5.20 with the Pirates prior to the trade deadline. If he can keep the momentum going in Chicago, fans might actually be excited to watch White Sox pitchers. 

2025 Prediction: Fifth in AL Central, No Playoffs

The White Sox likely won’t have a historically bad season. They’ll have a terrible one, sure, but it won’t be a repeat of last year. They’ll most likely finish fifth in their division. They’ll once again sell off any veterans who have trade value at the deadline. They’ll stumble into September and hope that next season is somehow better. With all of the top prospects expected to arrive at the majors in the next two years, there’s hope. Not much for this year, but perhaps within the five.

FanGraphs’ Projection: 63-99
Baseball Prospectus: 62-100

*Projections were pulled from FanGraphs as of Feb. 23

Posted: February 23, 2025
Category: Cactus League, Chicago White Sox
Tagged as: AL Central, Andrew Benintendi, andrew vaughn, Chicago White Sox, colson montgomery, justin anderson, Luis Robert, MLB, MLB Spring Training 2025, mogul vargas, Spring Training, White Sox