Padres Spring Training Preview: Can They Tackle the Dodgers?
The Padres have been so close, yet so far at the same time. They have made eight postseason appearances in their history, and two involved ventures to the World Series. In 1984, they lost to the Detroit Tigers 4-1 in the championship as part of their first-ever postseason appearance. Then, in 1998, they were swept by the New York Yankees 4-0. Since that year, San Diego hasn’t traveled back to the pinnacle of baseball.
Heading into the 2025 season, San Diego has made several additions. Right-handed pitcher Nick Pivetta, who previously played for the Boston Red Sox, will step into the rotation alongside Cease. The Padres pitching is a concern, as beyond Cease, the vast majority of the Padres’ rotation is not returning. Now, with new additions, they have depth and veteran players that are ready to play.
2024 record: 93-69 (Second, National League West)
Last Postseason Appearance: 2024, Lost NLDS to Los Angeles Dodgers
What Happened in 2024: The Padres carried themselves far for a team that spent most of its offseason rebuilding. In-season trades of Luis Arráez, Dylan Cease, Jason Adam, Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing took them to the playoffs. But, in doing so, they sacrificed their long-term outlook and highly touted farm system.
The bullpen was a bright spot for the Padres. Robert Suarez is coming off an All-Star season where he posted a 2.77 ERA and a 3.69 strikeout-to-walk across 65 innings. Additionally, Jeremiah Estrada set the modern MLB record with 13 straight strikeouts. Even more impressive, the Padres did this after losing the majority of their pitching staff, including five-time All-Star Josh Hader.
The team also clinched records outside the mound. For the first time in 14 years, the team snagged a triple play in a postseason run, the first by any team to win a clincher. For a team that
recorded a no-hitter, multiple comebacks of five-plus runs and a record streak of walk-off homers, the triple play was a sign of hope on a team that put up a fight against the star-studded Dodgers’ lineup.
New Arrivals
- C Elias Diaz (Colorado Rockies)
- 1B Connor Joe (Pittsburgh Pirates)
- RHP Michael King (New York Yankees)
- RHP Ron Marinaccio (Chicago White Sox)
Key Departures
- C Kyle Higashioka (Texas Rangers)
- INF Ha-Seong Kim (Tampa Bay Rays)
- LHP Martin Pérez (Chicago White Sox)
- LHP Tanner Scott (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Projected Batting Order*
- DH Luis Arraez
- RF Fernando Tatis Jr.
- CF Jackson Merrill
- 3B Manny Machado
- 1B Jake Cronenworth
- SS Xander Bogaerts
- 2B Jose Iglesias
- LF Jason Heyward
- C Elias Díaz
Projected Rotation*
- Dylan Cease (RHP)
- Michael King (RHP)
- Yu Darvish (RHP)
- Nick Pivetta (RHP)
- Kyle Hart (LHP)
Projected Bullpen*
Mid-Relief: Adrian Morejon (LHP), Yuki Matsui (LHP), Alek Jacon (RHP), Wandy Peralta (LHP)
Long-Relief: Ron Marinaccio (RHP)
Set-Up: Jason Adam (RHP), Jeremiah Estrada (RHP)
Closer: Robert Suarez (RHP)
Biggest Question: Will the farm system pan out?
Joe Musgrove is not scheduled to return this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery for an elbow injury during Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series. The Padres, however, are not lacking in prospects. After signing Humberto Cruz out of Mexico, who played with the DSL Padres Gold and now with San Diego, the Padres have replenished their first draft picks on high-school lefties Kash Mayfield (25th overall, Elk City High School, Oklahoma) and Boston Bateman (52nd, Adolfo Camarillo High School, California). The farm system is replenished, but it’s unknown who will step up in the place of Musgrove.
Team MVP: Jackson Merrill
With his rookie season under his belt, the sky’s the limit for Merrill. Last year, the Padres asked him to play center field, a position he’s never touched, and Merrill rose to the occasion. Initially a shortstop, he carried an athletic ability that allowed him to navigate multiple areas of the field. After proving his abilities, he earned a place in the middle of the lineup. With a stellar first year, notching a .500 SLG and a .826 OPS, he has a bright future within the Padres.
Breakout Candidate: Fernando Tatis Jr.
If Tatis Jr. is back to his pre-injury self, the Padres are a completely different team. He was out in late June with a right femur stress reaction, but, by August, he looked like he was restarting his everyday routine, throwing the ball and doing light baseball activities. On defense, his speed and power make him untouchable on the field. More than that, players like Musgrove attribute the Padres’ success partially to his personality in the dugout.
Key Stat: 16.5%
The 2024 season may not have resulted in a playoff series win, but it did earn some notable accolades. One is that no other MLB team in the 21st century has had four games in a season where it was down by five or more runs, but came back to win. This is significant because according to FanGraphs, in the past five years, the odds of making a comeback being down by five or more runs is 16.5%.
2025 Will be Successful… the rotation remains healthy.
Last year, expectations for the 2024 season slowed after losing pitchers like Musgrove, some of the best talents in the rotation. Even more concerning, the team has only added one pitcher who played in the majors in 2024 since the offseason started. San Diego has a stacked roster that should perform up to the standard, but the pitching will make or break this team.
2025 Prediction: Third in NL West, No Playoffs
For Padres fans, this season will not be the year they make it to the World Series, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t things to look forward to. On the offensive side, Machado is 100 hits short of 2,000. At 32, he could be the 55th player to reach that milestone. Tatis Jr. can show out after working his way back to the majors. It’ll be a fun season for the fans, even if the team doesn’t necessarily make the playoffs.
*Projections were pulled from FanGraphs as of March 10
Category: Cactus League, San Diego Padres
Tagged: Blake Snell Bryan Hoeing Connor Joe Dodgers Dylan Cease Elias Diaz Fernando Tatis Jackson Merrill Jake Cronenworth Jason Adam Jason Heyward Joe Musgrove Kyle Higashioka Los Angeles Luis Arraez Manny Machado Michael King MLB MLB Spring Training MLB Spring Training 2025 Padres Robert Suarez San Diego San Diego Padres Tanner Scott Xander Bogaerts Yu Darvish
